patterns / terminal_slide

credit thesis

Terminal slide

a stable zombie whose equity decline is ACCELERATING — each year's drop bigger than the last; fails well above the base rate on 21k company-years, the sharpest big-cell death signal we track

the signature — what the register must show
stable_zombie (3y of negative equity)
net assets falling two years straight
the fall is accelerating — each drop bigger than the last

Why it matters

A zombie can shamble on for years; what kills it is acceleration. When the decline steepens year on year the equity hole is compounding, and the register shows it before anyone announces anything: this cohort fails at well above the base rate — measured on 21,000 company-years, not a boutique cell.

The play

For credit: exit or take security now. For turnaround buyers: the window before the insolvency practitioners arrive is short — the timeline favours whoever is already prepared.

How it's kept honest

The badge is recomputed nightly across the whole index, and re-evaluated live the moment a company files — so a match is always a statement about the current register, not a stale list. Like every signal the scout raises: a prompt to look closer, never a verdict.