Everything the scout watches, on one page: how much of the UK register is under the glass, where it sits on the map, and how the three models read each corner of it.
Aggregates only — cohorts, counts and averages; never a named company.
the backdrop is a live slice of the ownership graph — neighbourhoods of companies that filed in the last day, sampled 07:00 UTC · company person controls filed today unlocked bigger = more ties · click any node to open its network
every bubble is a postcode area — size is the count of tracked companies · hover for numbers
average model percentile per sector against the register average — right of the line runs hotter, left runs cooler
calibrated 12-month probabilities, all scored companies — most of the register is quiet, and the shelves say exactly how quiet
what the register actually did — and how the models scored when graded on a year they never saw
4 512
companies took new secured borrowing — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 1.08% · predicted 69.1% → happened 72.4% · lift 67×
549
satisfied one charge and took another — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 0.24% · predicted 30.4% → happened 30.6% · lift 127×
757
moved from personal to corporate control — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 0.33% · predicted
17.2% → happened 12.0%
· lift 36.7×
24-month label, 13 elapsed — realised is a floor
Live counts are register facts — charges as filed, control changes as notified (a mature company whose individual owner ceased and a corporate controller arrived in the same window); the freshest window always undercounts a little, since Companies House delivers with a lag. The test row is walk-forward: vintage 2025-06-30, models never trained on it, window closed 2026-06-30 — the full method and honest footnotes.
30 days of filings straight off the Companies House stream, and the companies that crossed a pattern threshold live
every daily and weekly read the scout has filed — newest first
Insurance carried an outsized share of yesterday's credit-leaning re-ratings (2.3x), alongside smaller but consistent skews in electronics manufacturing and telecoms — worth flagging even though the day's totals (9,065 re-rated) are a single-day snapshot, not yet a trend. On the exit side, information services led the sale-likelihood cohort at nearly three times its share of the day's re-ratings; regionally the only concentration worth naming was Northern Ireland's tilt toward borrowing appetite. Early days, but these are the sharpest lines in an otherwise diffuse day — the detail sits behind the count.
Re-ratings picked up pace today (8,196, versus 7,329 the day before), and the standout concentration sits on the credit-leaning side: accommodation businesses took 1.5x their share of this period's re-ratings among companies leaning toward secured debt, a broader cohort of 20. The sharpest lift overall — financial auxiliary services at 2.3x on the exit-leaning side — rests on only 11 companies, so it's a pointer worth watching rather than a settled read; with 96% of today's movement landing in a single day, this is an early snapshot, not an established pattern. Pattern-matching echoed the same broad-based tone, with sector laggard (195) and quiet compounder (140) the most frequent live archetype matches, rather than any one storyline dominating.
Early snapshot, but the standout is clear: information services and telecoms are each pulling roughly double their share of today's exit-leaning re-ratings, alongside a smaller lift in head-office/consultancy — worth flagging even on modest counts. On the credit side, Northern Ireland stands out at 1.6x its share of today's credit-leaning cohort, with accommodation the only sector showing a mild skew. With 95% of activity landing in a single day, treat this as a first read rather than a trend — but the exit-lean pattern in information services and telecoms is the sharpest signal on the board.
Re-rated volumes doubled day-on-day, but treat that as an early snapshot rather than a trend given it's concentrated on one day. The firmest signal is on the credit side: construction (buildings) is running at 1.7x its share of today's re-ratings among companies leaning toward secured borrowing, a cluster worth watching as the pattern data (16 Z-distress, 13 sector-laggard matches) builds out. Exit-leaning activity was led more thinly by head office and management consultancy firms (1.6x), with no notable regional skew on either side.
Re-ratings rose to 31,706 this week (from 27,498), and the standout is where borrowing appetite is concentrating: accommodation businesses and Northern Ireland registrations each took 1.5x their normal share of this period's credit-leaning re-ratings, well ahead of the more diffuse showing across insurance, scientific R&D and financial auxiliary services. On the exit-leaning side, legal & accounting and civil engineering firms were modestly over-represented (1.3-1.4x) among the 2,992 companies tilting toward sale, though with smaller counts behind them these are worth watching rather than betting on. Sector-laggard was the most-matched live pattern (748), with quiet-compounder and debtor-heavy close behind — a reminder that this week's real story is concentration in borrowing appetite, not a broad shift in exit intent.
Model re-rated 614 companies today—a tenth of yesterday's volume, so treat this as an early read rather than a trend. The one figure worth flagging: North West businesses are punching 1.7x their share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings, with Retail also over-represented there at 1.5x, though both rest on single-digit counts. The exit-leaning side showed no notable sector concentration, spread thinly across the Midlands and South.
Motor trade is today's sharpest signal — 1.6x its share of the credit-leaning cohort — while real estate shows a shallower but far broader pull (1.3x across 188 businesses), together pointing borrowing appetite more than exit intent. On the sale-likelihood side, food & beverage service stands out at 1.6x, though on a modest base, and nothing else clears real concentration; with today's moves almost entirely landing in a single day, this is an early read, not an established pattern. Sector laggard was the busiest new archetype, with 145 fresh matches.
The clearest signal today sits on the credit-leaning side: Northern Ireland companies took 1.6x their usual share of this period's re-ratings (21 firms), the most solid concentration in a set of movements where 92% landed in a single day — an early snapshot, not yet a trend. On the exit-leaning side, motor trade ran modestly ahead of its share (1.5x, 19 companies); sharper lifts in electronics manufacturing, publishing and advertising rest on single-digit to low-teens counts and are too thin to call. Total re-ratings held broadly steady at 6,940, with the 446 companies moving both ways treated as churn, not a market split.
Sharpest signal today is the credit lean: Scientific R&D (1.7x), motor trade and food & beverage service (1.5x each) and telecoms (1.5x) all took an outsized share of firms newly leaning toward secured borrowing, with Northern Ireland the one regional pocket standing out (1.4x) — early snapshot, but a clean cluster. Exit-leaning re-ratings tilted toward film & media and legal & accounting, though on smaller counts, and IT services added a steady 38 to that pile; both directions are down on yesterday's volume, so treat today as a first read, not a trend. Sector laggard and debtor-heavy were the standout new pattern matches, worth a closer look under the hood.
Re-ratings ran hot yesterday (6,802, up from 5,826) but the read stays narrow: financial auxiliary services stood out on the credit-leaning side at 1.8x its share of the day's re-ratings, with accommodation and retail also over-represented there. Information services carried the firmest exit-side skew at 2.1x, though on just six companies, so treat that as a flag to watch rather than a call. With 96% of movement landing in a single day, this is a first snapshot, not a trend — no sector read holds up as "pressure" or "bifurcation" yet.
Northern Ireland's borrowing-appetite lead is the standout: at 2.0x its share of today's re-ratings, secured-debt likelihood is rising disproportionately there, alongside a smaller Welsh skew and a telecommunications sector reading 8 companies deep. The exit-leaning cohort is comparatively muted, with food & beverage service and IT & software services only modestly over-represented — nothing sharp enough to call a sector story yet. Caveat: today's 6,163 re-ratings are overwhelmingly a single day's data, so treat this as an early read, not a trend.
Sales-likelihood re-ratings were roughly balanced against credit-side moves, but the sharpest early signal sits with borrowing appetite: South West companies took 1.5x their share of this period's credit-leaning cohort, with Yorkshire & North East close behind at 1.4x — both against wider re-rating volumes almost double the previous day's. On the exit side, Construction (buildings) punched at 2.7x its share of re-ratings, though on just eight companies, so treat it as an early snapshot rather than a trend. With over 60% of today's activity landing on a single day, this is a first read — worth watching, not yet calling.
Sector laggard patterns led the week's live archetype activity at 529 matches, well ahead of anything else surfacing from the register. Credit-leaning re-ratings held a clear edge over exit-leaning ones (3,837 vs 2,628), with accommodation businesses over-represented at 1.4x their share of this period's re-ratings — a borrowing-appetite signal, not a distress one — while information services showed a similar tilt (1.5x) on the exit side, albeit on a thin 19 companies. Total re-ratings ticked up week-on-week (27,683 vs 25,666) even as both directional cohorts shrank, meaning more of the week's activity sat in the volatile, both-up bucket — worth flagging as noise rather than a market turn.
Signal today is thin — 434 re-rated, barely a fifth of yesterday's volume, so treat this as an early snapshot rather than a trend. The one cohort worth flagging: real estate companies leaning toward credit at 1.5x their share of this period's re-ratings (15 names), a modest but genuine skew rather than noise. Exit-leaning moves and regional splits showed no notable concentration — nothing to build a story on there yet.
Northern Ireland's the standout: it takes 1.3x its usual share of re-ratings on both sides at once, but leans harder into borrowing appetite than exit interest, alongside accommodation (1.8x) and employment & recruitment (1.7x) firms turning up more often among those flagged for secured debt. That's built on 6,266 re-ratings, almost all landing in a single day, so treat it as an early snapshot rather than a settled pattern — worth a second look tomorrow rather than a conclusion today.
Sector filings surged 34% day-on-day, but the standout was a genuine skew: information services was 2.3x over-represented among companies leaning toward credit — a small cohort (8) so worth treating as an early signal, not a call. Wholesale, food & beverage service and civil engineering all showed similar borrowing-appetite tilts around 1.5x. This is a snapshot from a single busy day rather than a trend — worth watching whether it holds, not yet worth building a thesis on.
A first read, and a big one: 5,821 companies were re-rated on live register events, almost all in a single day, so this is a snapshot to flag rather than a trend to call. The clearest concentration sits in IT and software services on the exit-leaning side — 1.5x its share of this period's re-ratings across 40 companies — while credit-leaning appetite skews toward wholesale (1.4x, 37 companies) and, more thinly, Northern Ireland (1.4x, just 13). Pattern-wise, "sector laggard" was the single biggest mover with 118 new matches; worth watching as more days land, not yet a story.
Register activity nearly doubled overnight, and real estate stands out on the credit-leaning side — 1.7x its share of today's re-ratings, with the East region also punching above weight at 2.2x, hinting at a regional refinancing pocket worth a closer look. Retail's showing up too, tilted toward exit signals rather than borrowing, though the numbers there are modest. Pattern-wise, sector laggard and Z distress archetypes led the new matches, but with just 719 companies re-rated in total, treat today's regional skew as an early read rather than a confirmed trend.
Northern Ireland is the standout this week, showing up over-represented on both sides of the split at once — 1.3x its share of exit-leaning re-ratings and 1.5x of credit-leaning ones — a genuine regional skew rather than a sector story. On the exit side, professional services (professional/technical, information services, legal & accounting, all around 1.3-1.4x) are pulling ahead, while civil engineering leads the credit-leaning cohort at 1.4x, hinting at project finance and working-capital borrowing in that trade. Overall re-rating volume roughly halved on the week (25,887 vs 41,268), so treat these lifts as directionally sound but don't expect this scale to repeat until volumes recover.
Sector laggard led this period's pattern activity, and the Midlands stands out on the credit side at 1.4x its usual share of re-ratings — though with only 42 credit-leaning companies and 7 in that regional pocket, this is a thin, early read. Note also that 89% of today's re-ratings landed on a single day, so treat this as a snapshot rather than a trend: worth watching tomorrow, not yet worth building a thesis on.
Accommodation businesses stood out on the credit side today, taking 2.3 times their usual share of credit-leaning re-ratings — a real cluster (14 companies), though still a modest base. On the exit side, IT & software services led (1.5x, 25 companies), while Northern Ireland punched above its weight in both directions at once (2.0x on exit, 1.3x on credit) — a regional tilt worth flagging rather than a single-sector story. Nearly all of today's movement fell within one day, so treat this as an early snapshot: electronics manufacturing posted the sharpest credit lift (2.6x) but on only six companies, too thin to call yet.
Sector fingerprint of the day: Construction (buildings) is pulling the credit-leaning cohort at 1.4x its share of today's re-ratings — the clearest signal on offer, though these are early-day numbers and shouldn't be read as a trend yet. Northern Ireland shows up on both sides at once (1.4x exit-leaning, 1.6x credit-leaning), which reads more as a locally busy register than a directional story. Elsewhere the movement was diffuse — no other cohort stands out enough to build a line on.
Northern Ireland's borrowing lean stands out — 1.8x its usual share of today's re-ratings, with wholesale and food & beverage service also pulling ahead on the credit side, together suggesting a working-capital or expansion push rather than distress. Exit-leaning signals were milder, with accommodation and consultancy the only sectors showing any lift (1.4-1.5x) among a noticeably smaller pool than the day before. Worth flagging: today's activity is heavily concentrated in a single day's filings, so treat this as a first read rather than a settled pattern.
Concentration among yesterday's re-ratings sits squarely in civil engineering, where credit-leaning moves ran at 2.6x the sector's normal share of activity — worth flagging even on a base of nine, and echoed at a smaller scale by legal & accounting on the exit side (2.3x, 16 companies). Everything else, including the modest Scotland and Northern Ireland skew towards borrowing appetite, was diffuse rather than sector-driven. With 96% of the day's re-ratings landing in a single session, this is an early snapshot rather than a trend — worth watching for confirmation, not yet a call.
Re-ratings jumped to 5,071 from 1,259, but 95% landed in a single day, so treat this as an early snapshot rather than a trend. The firmest signal on the exit side is civil engineering leaning toward credit at 1.8x its share of this period's re-ratings, alongside employment & recruitment at 1.7x — both worth watching but still on modest counts (7 and 12 respectively). On the sale-likelihood side, wholesale and head office & management consultancy both cluster around 1.4-1.6x, with Northern Ireland the only region showing any concentration; nothing else in the figures stands out as more than diffuse movement.
Re-rating volume held broadly steady (1,485), but the credit-leaning cohort shows real concentration: food & beverage service and wholesale both stand out (2.1x and 1.8x their share of the day's re-ratings respectively), with real estate also over-represented at scale (37 companies, 1.5x) — and Wales leads regionally at 2.0x. On the exit side, IT & software services and Retail carry a modest tilt (1.5x, 1.4x), though on smaller counts than yesterday, so treat this snapshot as early rather than a settled pattern; the day's stand-out pattern surge was Z-distress matches (31), worth flagging on volume alone even before scores catch up.
Borrowing appetite dominates the week: insurance, broadcasting and scientific R&D all clustered on the credit-leaning side, with insurance the sharpest tilt (1.7x its share of re-ratings), though the sector base there is small so treat it as an early read rather than a trend. Real estate is the volume story on the same side — over a thousand companies re-rated with credit-likelihood rising alone — while Northern Ireland stands out geographically at 1.6x. Exit-leaning activity was calmer and thinner (publishing and information services modestly over-represented, no regional concentration), with a third bucket re-rated up on both fronts at once — churn worth flagging, not a market call.
Wales' 1.8x share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings is the sharpest thing on the board, with food & beverage service also standing out on the credit side; though with only 1,397 companies re-rated (95% clustered on a single day), this is an early read, not a trend. Exit-leaning activity was thinner and more diffuse, with head office & management consultancy showing the firmest, if still modest, lift. No sector or region stands out in the volatile bucket worth building a story on — treat that as noise for now.
Sectors leaning toward exit today are led by financial auxiliary services and publishing (2.2x and 1.8x their share of re-ratings respectively), though both rest on modest counts of 11 apiece, so treat as an early signal rather than a firm read. On the credit-leaning side, Northern Ireland stands out sharply at 1.9x its share of re-ratings (40 companies), alongside a steady tilt in construction and accommodation firms toward secured borrowing appetite. Re-ratings overall jumped to 10,727 from 8,823 the day before, but with nearly all of this concentrated on one day, we're flagging the pattern, not calling a trend.
Re-ratings ran well above the prior day's pace, and the clearest early signal sits on the credit side: Accommodation and Publishing (incl. software) each took roughly 1.5–1.7x their normal share of today's re-ratings, alongside a firmer, larger showing from Real estate and Construction (buildings) — Northern Ireland stood out too, over-represented on both exit and credit reads at once. This is a snapshot from a single busy day, not a trend, so treat the concentration as an early flag worth watching rather than a settled pattern; the exit-leaning cohort, by contrast, was smaller and thinner on evidence. Roughly 670 companies moved both ways together — that's churn to note, not a market split, so we're leaving it out of the story for now.
Yorkshire & North East is punching well above its weight in the credit-leaning cohort (1.9x its share of today's re-ratings), alongside a second pull toward real estate on both the exit and credit sides — worth watching, though it's a small early snapshot (38 credit-leaning names) rather than a trend. Pattern-wise, Z distress, Sector laggard, Quiet compounder and Acquirer magnet all fired seven fresh matches apiece, a broader mix than yesterday's sharply larger set. With only 500 re-ratings on the day (against 5,018 previously) and 95% clustered in one day, treat this as a first read, not a shift.
Sale-side re-ratings this period skew hardest towards head-office/consultancy, IT & software services and motor trade — a genuine directional tilt rather than filing noise, though the sample is early (a single-day snapshot) and the advertising & market research lift rests on just six companies, so treat that one lightly. On the credit side the strongest concentration is food & beverage service and wholesale firms showing rising borrowing appetite, again first-day data rather than a trend. Both directional cohorts and the register overall were quieter than the prior day, with pattern-match volume led by sector-laggard and slow-bleed archetypes.
Northern Ireland's showing 1.5x its share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings, alongside a broader real estate and construction skew across the credit book — worth flagging early, though 95% of today's movement landed in a single day, so this is a first read, not a trend. On the exit side, publishing and business support services are the standout over-representations, again on modest counts. Full sector and company-level detail is in the underlying feed for subscribers who want to dig further.
Sector re-ratings today show accommodation businesses pulling nearly twice their share of credit-leaning moves (2.0x, 11 firms), pointing to borrowing appetite in that corner of hospitality — though the count is modest, so treat it as an early read. On the exit side, information services stands out most sharply (2.6x, on just 6 firms) alongside a steadier legal & accounting cluster (1.6x, 10 firms). With 95% of today's re-ratings landing in a single day, this is a snapshot rather than a trend — worth watching, not yet worth calling.
Sector concentration this snapshot: Accommodation stands out at 2.0x its share of re-ratings on the credit-leaning side, alongside a firmer construction-adjacent cluster (civil engineering, buildings) also skewed toward borrowing appetite. On the exit side the signal is thinner and more diffuse — head office/consultancy and wholesale lead but only modestly, at 1.4-1.5x. Both re-rating counts and directional splits are down on the previous day and this reading rests on a single day's data, so treat it as an early snapshot rather than a trend.
Re-ratings spiked hard (5,752 versus 605 the day before), but with 95% of that activity landing in a single day, this reads as an early snapshot rather than an established trend. The firmest signal sits on the credit-leaning side: the East picked up 2.0x its share of this period's re-ratings (52 companies) skewing toward secured-borrowing appetite, with Northern Ireland showing an even sharper 2.1x lift, though on a thin base of just 13 — worth watching rather than banking on yet. Real estate and construction (buildings) added modest, larger-volume credit tilts (143 and 40 respectively), while the exit-leaning half stayed comparatively diffuse, with only mild concentration in retail and food & beverage service.
Real estate carried the clearest signal in yesterday's exit-leaning re-ratings — 1.5x its share of the cohort, and on a solid base of 41 companies, the sturdiest read in the batch. Retail turned up on both sides of the ledger (1.9x on exit-leaning, 1.7x on credit-leaning) but on counts in single digits, so treat that as a flag rather than a call. With most of the day's 962 re-ratings landing inside a single 24-hour window, this is an early snapshot, not yet a trend worth building a thesis on.
Re-ratings climbed sharply this week — 18,124, up from 14,538 — and the clearest signal sat in the credit-leaning half: real estate took 1.7x its share of this period's re-ratings across 561 companies, with accommodation matching that lift on a smaller base of 28. On the exit-leaning side, legal & accounting was the sturdiest over-representation at 1.4x across 42 companies; electronics manufacturing and printing posted higher lifts but on numbers too thin (8 and 9) to hang a story on. Among live pattern matches, sector laggard led the week at 427 hits, ahead of quiet compounder and debtor heavy — the detail behind those counts is where the real read is.
Today's re-ratings were thin and heavily clustered on a single day, so treat this as an early snapshot rather than an established trend: within the credit-leaning cohort, Motor trade ran at 2.7x its share of today's re-ratings and Food & beverage service at 2.0x — both worth flagging, but each resting on only six companies. The firmest volume signal was pattern-based rather than sectoral: "Bank entry" accounted for 26 of today's 683 re-ratings, with "Bank exit" close behind on 18, well ahead of any other archetype. Exit-leaning moves showed no notable sector or regional concentration, so today's texture sits squarely on the borrowing-appetite side.
Re-ratings eased across the board today — 3,239 companies against 3,643 the day before — but retail produced the sharpest exit-leaning skew: 1.5x its share of the day's movements, on 35 companies, a fresh read not seen in recent issues. Real estate remains the deepest, best-evidenced credit-leaning pull (1.6x on 98 companies, essentially matching last issue's 1.7x on 123), while accommodation's skew (2.0x) is now into its second straight day, still on thin volume. Nearly all of today's activity fell within a single day, so treat this as an early snapshot rather than an established trend.